• A big part of the Combine is that teams get to interview players and see them react and interact in a controlled environment of drills and varied evaluation.
• Some players will inevitably ‘move up and down’ the draft board based purely on good or bad 40-yard dash, vertical jump or bench-press numbers.
• We are sure to see a constant stream of hot takes and rumors from now until the draft. Don’t trust the propaganda!

Every GM and scouting department is pouring over tape of not only eligible college draftees, but also of possible free agent veteran additions, to evaluate how their skills could fit their scheme. They have likely been evaluating all season, but there are still different elements of the puzzle to uncover. Why is it such a crapshoot to evaluate talent and draft well??

How could a player test historically poorly on an intelligence test, and then go on to have a historically successful rookie year at a mentally demanding position? Part of it could have to do with player development… but I think there are more complicated factors involved.

There are always other variable that are difficult to separate from statistics or even the players game tape, such as motivation, adaptability, maturity, scheme familiarity, usage and opportunity, work ethic and consistency, relationships and trust with coaches, some amount of dumb luck, and one of the big ones: how much impact did a good or a bad teammate playing next to them affect their play?

This is part of why a video game like Madden cannot ever fully replicate life. There are so many systems at play that have a hidden impact on decisions and performance.

We always want a way to be able to measure a person when faced with an interview. Even if our logic is flawed, we create a system, and that is not a bad thing at all.

I had a long discussion with friends recently about the idea of intelligence and how you can’t always measure it. They sought to find a way to measure it lol. Whether through means of academic grades, language pronunciation, or adaptability, it’s easy to think we can quickly and accurately assess intelligence.

Judy Kearins did a study comparing the intelligence of white, euro-Australian children vs. aboriginal children. At first, she found that the white children outperformed the aboriginal children in language and traditional IQ testing.

Believing that the test ignored what the aboriginal children were good at, she sought to create another test (one of visual-spatial awareness). The aboriginal children then tested higher than the white children in this manner. It’s interesting that the way we view the world, and even the task at hand, could be biased by our environments, self-determinate needs and even cultures.

The original IQ test was created by two psychologists in 1905 France who were aiming to help struggling kids in school. The skills that they chose to test were ones that they reasoned could be poured together to create a solution to signify a person’s intelligence quotient.

If you read up on Sternberg and Grigorenko, they find that in some African cultures different measures of intelligence may even be considered inversely correlated (a genius in one field could be a fool in another). Jimmy Kimmel even gives a hilarious description of the Dunning-Kruger Effect in relation to Aaron Rodgers in the first seven and a half minutes of his show. It boils down to just because you’re good in one area, does not mean that applies to all areas in life.

We may all have tasks that suit our skillsets well.

Cultural bias is a common criticism of IQ-testing, as is the fact that it gets less and less reliable the further an individual is from their childhood. Feel free to look up terms like Alfred Binet, the Army alpha and beta test, and EQ testing for interesting research and conclusions about testing and controversy.

The U.S. even has an instance in history of forced sterilization of people who scored poorly on IQ tests (1924 Massachusetts). It’s shocking that we have based so much on this test. It’s really wild, actually.

If you think about it, there are so many factors that go into how you perform on a test. Your lack of literacy could hinder your ability to display your mathematical skills on word problems. That is a simple example, and this can get very complicated, especially when it comes to NFL competency.

Tests can have a hard time qualifying abstract skills like creativity, social intelligence, motivation, discipline, as well as valor in the face of danger and difficulty. Coleridge Bernard Stroud IV is a young man from the I.E. who went through the competition and recruitment process without his father.

I mean, they were out there making savage memes about my boy being mentally challenged and calling him out of his name!! C.J. then went out and tore up the league, earning comparisons to the league’s best QB’s ever, not just other rookies. Puka Nacua had an incredible season as well, recording the most receiving yards all-time by a rookie (1,486), and would’ve won Offensive Player of the Year in any other year.

A quote from Daniel Jeremiah during the 2023 NFL playoffs: “I have not seen anybody process the field as clearly and as confidently as C.J. Stroud did in their first year in the league”. After he beat the ‘all Ohio State QB’s are busts’ charges, he broke the frame of how we should view intelligence testing. Prospects in the upcoming draft are being advised by Athletes First sports agency to skip the S2 cognition test.

The S2 seeks to measure cognition and wants to separate that from the broader idea of intelligence. You do want to know whether or not your quarterback can process many levels of information very quickly… but how do we get it right?

Since this is a complex topic, I want to open it up for discussion. Please drop a note in the comments if you have thoughts, ideas or alternatives to the cognition test. While I definitely don’t have all the answers, I’m a big proponent of letting game tape be king. Better yet, watch it with him!

Stroud went super saiyan in the clutch against the Colts to get into the playoffs (134.1 QB rating in week 18 elimination game) and against the Browns (157.2 QB rating in the Wild Card round). He finished the year with the 4th-highest QB rating (101.7). Not just among rookies, among all quarterbacks!

He led the league with a 23-5 TD/INT ratio (the youngest to ever accomplish this) and was the first rookie ever to lead the league in INT percentage (1.0). Stroud racked up the third most passing yards by a rookie ever (only Andrew Luck and Justin Herbert had more) and his league-leading yards per game average (274) was 2nd most by any rookie ever.

Stroud entered the playoffs against the Browns and averaged the highest EPA per drop back (whatever that means, Next Gen Stats) of any rookie in the playoffs in the NGS era. Now the youngest QB in history to win a playoff game as well as throwing for the 3rd most yards gained against the league’s #1 pass defense (this while only attempting 5 passes in the 2nd half).

From NFL .com: “Stroud joined Tom Brady (2007) and Joe Montana (1989) as the only QB’s to lead the NFL in passing yards per game and pass TD-INT ratio (minimum 10 games)”. The other two men won MVP that year.

Finally, C.J. Stroud is the first rookie quarterback in the Super Bowl era to take a team from worst to first in a division and win a playoff game. Think he passed the test? One quote I love from him: “If I were to compare myself to other people I probably wouldn’t be where I’m at”.

Trying to get guys to figure out how to answer a question about shapes correctly is different than how somebody processes information when the bullets are flying and there are things like spatial awareness, muscle memory, trust in a specific receiver or exotic coverages at play. The history of bias in testing, eugenics and previous beliefs in racial superiority (that even the NFL has had to fight) combine to show us that IQ tests can lack reliability and validity in measuring ability.

I’m not saying we abolish testing… that’s not even feasible or sensible when these executives are making multi-billion-dollar decisions. We can, however, acknowledge that measuring intelligence/cognition/mental capacity is implicitly biased, and difficult to rely on. Maybe the true meritocracy of the National Football League can help teach some truths about society at large.

Just look at this moment of pure jubilation and emotional vindication after the Texans eliminated the Browns in the first round of the 2024 NFL Playoffs. How can you not cheer for this young man, especially in light of the ‘diagnosis’ that he got at the NFL combine last year.

Mr. Stroud clearly displayed that he has other abilities that were not considered in the test that made him effective at the most important position in sports. It is highly commendable that he did not let a test tell him who he was or what his legacy would be! Attempts at measuring a person’s particular set of skills, thankfully has nothing to do with the level of potential that each of us possess.

While Coronavirus is cancelling everything around us (thankful for this Tweet), The National Football League, we can all be sure, will attempt to keep the upcoming season on track as much as liability will allow. These people love what they do and will make sure to get that guap in all ways possible. In the absence of most sports and entertainment, a ton of eyes will be on the impending news about 2020 Free Agency and the NFL Draft.

Many dominoes fell today. The NFL Players voted to pass the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (part of which allows the use of only the franchise tag in negotiations), The Jacksonville Jaguars initiated “Project Dolphin Tank” and The Tennessee Titans (as I predicted, as you’ll see at the bottom) chose Ryan Tannehill over everybody out there. That ‘everybody’ includes the G.O.A.T., Tom Brady. Tommy boy will be 43 this season, but why won’t this old man tell us where he’s going?? Chris Simms and his dad, along with most other people are dismissing the idea entirely that Brady would ever leave the team he’s played 20 seasons for. I’m here to tell you that we will not see him play in a New England Patriots jersey ever again! EVER.

Whatever the reason(s) may be, Tom’s play has declined statistically over the last 3 seasons. That is undeniable. We were already wondering if he would leave last year. This season felt like a definitive breaking point. Brady had his worst second half of a season ever (in completion percentage, passing yards per attempt as well as passer rating). You can make all of the excuses for his play that you want: he dealt with injuries, he misses Rob Gronkowski, Edelman missed time, his young receivers could not get open, the running game regressed, etc. It’s easy to forget, however, that this is Tom freaking Brady that we are talking about! Those excuses used to not even matter. His whole thing used to be that he worked with no-name guys and castoffs on offense and made them into playmakers and stars. The list includes Reche Caldwell, Jonas Gray, Brandon Lloyd, Laurence Maroney, Chris Hogan, Danny Amendola, Dion Lewis, Troy Brown, Shane Vereen, Kevin Faulk, David Givens, Julian Edelman, Wes Welker and Deion Branch (sore subject as a Hawks fan) among others as guys that were dangerous in championship games and seasons in New England but accomplished little else at future or previous stops.

Tom Brady is one of the most competitive athletes in the league, and may be one of the greats who can’t accept mediocrity or his own susceptibility to Father Time. It kinda feels like Brady wanted the Patriots to do more for him this year. You better believe that the chip on this former 6th rounder’s shoulder got bigger after the narrative he faced this season. He will be highly motivated to pull a #WashedKing and prove everyone wrong. Fascinating.

That being said, let’s look at things from the Patriots’ perspective. As bizarre as it is to admit, Brady is one of the weak links on this team. New England had a strong defensive showing this past season and has the reigning DPOY. Since he is paid as a quarterback, that is not a great disparity for the team to have. The fans in us (whether we love or despise him) can’t believe that New England would let their franchise icon leave for another team… look at how the Giants let Eli stay until the wheels fell off. You know that these are the Patriots that we’re talking about, Jack?!

New England is cold-blooded and calculating. They are notorious for getting rid of players a year too early vs. a year too late. If these QB dominoes weren’t in danger of falling at any second, I would do a deep dive on the history of that idea in New England. Names like Ty Law, Richard Seymour, Randy Moss, Lawyer Malloy and Darrelle Revis immediately come to mind. That’s one way that they’ve been able to stay on top for so long: they don’t play when it comes to business decisions. They are the anti-Cowboys (Jerry Jones LOVES his star players and will do a lot to keep them).

You can argue their level of competition early in the year, but heading into the playoffs, the Patriot Defense was the 4th team in the last 25 years to allow 20 or fewer offensive touchdowns and intercept more than 25 passes. The previous three teams to accomplish this all went on to win the Super Bowl. The Patriots did not… DO YOU THINK BILL BELICHICK WILL LET THAT STAND?? He was most likely already hot that Robert Kraft made him keep Brady last year over Jimmy Garoppolo.

Enter the young Los Angeles Chargers. They are already behind in a fight with the Rams for the loyalty of L.A. Ask the Clippers how important that factor is. They have made every move imaginable this offseason to build a comfortable and cushy landing spot for TB12. They extended a great satellite back (Tom has been known to make magic with these kinds of weapons) in Austin Ekeler. They made hard decisions to open up cap space in dumping the contracts of older, yet still effective players in Thomas Davis and Brandon Mebane. They already have a great route runner and a downfield threat in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, respectively. Keenan Allen’s presence in particular makes this a crucial potential fit, as he is a maven in the slot. Brady has been a major catalyst in the chemical process of making slot receivers boom throughout his career. Oh yeah, the Bolts have a young threat named Hunter Henry who would give Brady the best tight end he’s had since Gronk. Ya’ll seeing this? I think Tom would love to be at the controls here, walking around with WMD‘s at his disposal, walking around L.A. with his Uggs in search of avocado ice cream.

The kicker in this whole situation may be the potential strength of the O-line, which they navigated perfectly to improve so far. They flipped their left tackle, Russell Okung, in order to gain a strength at offensive guard with Trai Turner from the Carolina Panthers. They most likely did this with the fact in mind that they pick 6th overall in the upcoming NFL Draft and are in position to take one of the elite tackle prospects in the draft to solidify their line. Believe it or not, this is a team that lost 10 of their games by one score or less. The Chargers are a team that is within striking distance of competing for the ‘ship if they can get modest gains in contribution from the quarterback position (and if Derwin James can regain form after his injury).

If you check out all of the public forums and social media comments, nobody thinks Vader is leaving the Empire. What if he does? What if he helps to bring balance to the league? Tom even already announced that he’s headed to Hollywood. Get ready for the inevitable Tom Brady and LeBron James commercial if you live in the LA Metro area. We already heard that there was a phone call (!) between Bill and Tom that didn’t go well… if they break up, there were enough cookie crumbs along the way for a potential 30-for-30 episode.

Tom Brady switching sides to the Chargers to continue (and attempt to further legitimize) his legacy apart from Bill Belichick would be a riveting and sensical storyline all 2020. It would be especially intriguing to see which QB Bill will pick to replace Brady and lead his team. Belichick and Brady would be in a race to win a Lombardi without the other. I think most may underestimate the ego and level of petty involved here with two competitive living legends. If we can all stay inside for a bit, we may be in for some fire this year.

Below is my crack at how the giant game of QB musical chairs will play out across the league in this scenario (and my random notes). This may be the first year that I can remember where a lot of teams can end up with either a starter or backup who they believe in long-term. I made this list days ago, but when I saw that Ryan Tannehill signed, I decided to not let any more of my thunder be stolen:

– Philip Rivers to the Colts > (Brissett as backup + draft someone like Jeudy) Frank Reich worked with Rivers in San Diego.

– Ryan Tannehill back to the Titans > (Re-sign Henry and get rid of Mariota) Historic, deadly efficiency in 2019. If it ain’t broke… Vrabel knows Bill Belichick would be salivating to sign R.T. if Brady leaves. Next Alex Smith?

– Tom Brady to the Chargers > (Tyrod Taylor as backup + draft an OT) Focal point vs him going to the Titans as an ancillary part.

– Andy Dalton to the Patriots > (Stidham as backup and potential heir?) This fool has put up points in his career. Bill knows that and banks on his veteran savy to help stoke Belichick’s legacy apart from Tom Brady.

– Teddy Bridewater to the Bears > (Starts off as backup to Mr. Biscuit?) Window of prime defense could shut FAST in Chicago. He is a smart player who can compliment a dominant defense, protect the football and impress at times.

– Cam Newton stays with the Panthers > (For now? Traded when healthy?) Sam Bradford style trade when there is an opportunity? Grier, Allen-1yr contract. Tepper willing to play long game.

– Justin Herbert to the Panthers > (Backup to Allen and Cam for a hot sec) Rhule O great for spread QB? In perfect position. College to NFL coaches have wealth of knowledge from scouting and recruiting their first couple draft classes.

– Derek Carr stays with the Raiders > (Draft CeeDee Lamb) Gruden
finally gets the elite WR that he missed in A.B. that lets him test his QB’s worth.

– Jalen Hurts to the Raiders > (Backup to and competition for Carr) Gruden
would love this kid’s confidence, understanding of the game and leadership abilities. His 10 year contract let’s him wait on sunshine. Steez.

– Joe Burrow to the Bengals > Magical season.

– Tua Tagovailoa to the Dolphins > (Backup to Fitzpatrick until fully healthy) Their guy. Accurate thrower. 9 picks in 1st or 2nd rounds next 2 years, can make it happen.

– Jacob Eason to the Lions > (Backup to Stafford) Rumors of DET divorce.

– Jordan Love to the Buccaneers > (Backup to Winston) Too much alike?? Arians is the QB whisperer… wants Rivers, but will take “poor man’s Mahomes”.

– Jake Fromm to the Broncos > (Insurance that won’t hurt Lock)

– Marcus Mariota to the ‘skins > (Insurance behind Haskins) Brings the mobility that Rivera is used to.

– Josh Rosen to the Steelers > (Backup and heir after Big Ben’s final season) Let’s get this guy behind a functional O-line and see what ol’ boy can do! Rosen a major upgrade to the bummy QB play we saw from Pittsburgh last year.

– Case Keenum to the Browns > (Backup, mentor and stabilizing force for Baker) Stefanski connection from Vikings.

– Joe Flacco to the Bengals > (Mentor to Macaulay Culkin) Skinny’s revenge on Baltimore!!

– P.J. Walker to the Seahawks > (Long term backup to Russ?) XFL MVP. Yessah!